North Macedonia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1837 | 1832 | 1822 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14110 | 15010 | 15510 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 15.7 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 11.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 696 | 773 | 892 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.2 | 14.2 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.4 | -4.4 | -4.9 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -2.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 51.4 | 50.4 | 53.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.8 | -6.1 | 0.7 | -0.8 | -1.9 | -2.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 575 | 788 | 650 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 80.9 | 82.8 | 83.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
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Monthly Report No. 3/2024
Stefan Jestl, Branimir Jovanović, Ambre Maucorps, Leon Podkaminer and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 3, March 2024
33 pages including 7 Tables and 8 Figures
The measures adopted by the government ahead of the elections in April and May are breathing life into the economy, with all the indicators now pointing in a positive direction. There is some doubt, though, about the extent to which this can sway the election outcome, and a transfer of power seems likely. If that happens, the biggest question will be how the new government positions itself on the constitutional changes required for EU accession talks to commence. In terms of economic policy, one should expect no great change, as both the main parties support neoliberal agendas. The second half of the year will continue to be exciting, as the current stimulus measures are due to expire, and the new government (whoever leads it) will have to tighten the country’s belt.