Bulgaria
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6878 | 6643 | 6400 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18540 | 22020 | 24060 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 9.8 | 12.7 | -8.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 798 | 905 | 1029 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.9 | -2.9 | -1.9 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 23.9 | 22.6 | 23.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.7 | -1.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 2029 | 3131 | 4083 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 58.1 | 51.6 | 48.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
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Monthly Report No. 1/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures
Bulgarians are being summoned to the polls again in June, in the fifth snap election since 2021. Growth slowed in 2023 and weak performance has continued in the first months of 2024. Inflation has fallen back thanks to a downturn in the non-core component. GDP growth is expected to be around 2% in 2024 and should remain moderate in the coming years. It is anticipated that the external economic environment will remain unfavourable and that growth will predominantly be driven by domestic demand.