Estonia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1331 | 1349 | 1366 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.2 | -0.5 | -3.0 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 28180 | 30140 | 30670 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 13.3 | 1.8 | -11.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 5.6 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1548 | 1645 | 1832 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 4.5 | 19.4 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.5 | -1.0 | -3.4 | -3.6 | -4.5 | -3.7 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 17.8 | 18.5 | 19.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.6 | -3.2 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 6322 | 1696 | 4878 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 85.1 | 84.7 | 90.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
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Monthly Report No. 1/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures
The past year presented significant challenges for the Estonian economy. A constellation of factors, including the disproportionately severe impact of the war in Ukraine, weak domestic and international demand, disruption to supply chains and a shift away from traditional export markets, dealt the economy a heavy blow. However, 2024 will mark a turning point, with stabilising prices, a modest resurgence in external demand and a robust labour market all indicating that the worst may be over. Nevertheless, to enter a new cycle of economic growth, the competitiveness of Estonian firms needs to be revived and new export markets need to be established.