Montenegro
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 619 | 617 | 615 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 13.0 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 15460 | 17580 | 19020 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.9 | -3.3 | 6.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 16.6 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 793 | 883 | 987 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.4 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.9 | -5.1 | -5.0 | -6.0 | -6.0 | -6.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 84.0 | 69.2 | 60.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -9.2 | -12.9 | -11.4 | -10.7 | -10.6 | -10.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 591 | 833 | 487 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 191.7 | 158.4 | 131.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
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Monthly Report No. 1/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures
Amidst political turmoil, Montenegro managed in 2023 to achieve considerable growth of 6%. This owed much to a record tourist season, the influx of Russian and Ukrainian immigrants and improvements on the labour market. Starting as it does from such a high base, 2024 will likely see a slowing of growth to 4.2%. A range of cross-cutting reforms aimed at increasing salaries and pensions is likely to boost consumption; but it will also place a strain on public finances. EU integration is back on the agenda of both the government and the EU. However, political stability may be tested during the planned government reshuffle in 2024.