Latvia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1884 | 1879 | 1880 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 6.7 | 3.0 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 23210 | 25420 | 26640 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.6 | 0.9 | -5.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.6 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1277 | 1373 | 1537 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.2 | 17.2 | 9.1 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -7.2 | -4.6 | -2.2 | -2.8 | -2.3 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 44.4 | 41.8 | 43.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.9 | -4.8 | -4.0 | -3.1 | -4.6 | -5.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3166 | 1120 | 1386 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 110.5 | 102.3 | 98.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
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Monthly Report No. 1/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures
While 2023 ended with GDP declining slightly (0.3%), this year will see an upswing of 1.6%. We expect external demand to shrink further, but by less than last year. Lower inflation will result in real wages rising – and accordingly in growth in household consumption. The government plans to further increase public investment in 2024, though private business remains reluctant to expand further. Given the still rather tight labour market, the unemployment rate fell slightly in 2023 – and will do so even more in the coming two years. Assuming that Latvia’s trading partners also find their way back on track next year, we expect the economy to pick up, with GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026.