Kazakhstan
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 19001 | 19635 | 19900 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19100 | 20420 | 21530 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.6 | 1.2 | 4.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 497 | 640 | 735 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 8.0 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.0 | -2.1 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -2.0 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 27.6 | 25.7 | 24.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.4 | 3.1 | -3.3 | -2.3 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3861 | 4819 | 4906 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 87.2 | 70.4 | 60.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
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Monthly Report No. 1/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures
Kazakhstan’s economy ended 2023 among CESEE’s top-performing economies, with strong private consumption and investment driving economic growth. Despite sluggish exports and skyrocketing imports to meet domestic demand, the economy grew by 5.1%. Private consumption was supported by wage increases, decelerating inflation and credit growth. However, we expect a slight slowdown in private consumption growth this year. By contrast, major investment in transport and logistics infrastructure (resulting from geopolitical shifts) and in modernisation of the energy system and utilities sector is likely to remain an important growth driver in the medium term. We expect the economy to grow by 4.7% in 2024 and by 4.9% in 2025-2026 – one of the fastest rates in CESEE.