Monthly Report No. 03/2022 - Amended Version

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Vasily Astrov, Vladislav L. Inozemtsev, Michael Landesmann and Nina Vujanović

wiiw Monthly Report No. 3, March 2022
53 pages including 1 Table and 29 Figures

Current issues accessible exclusively for Members. Free access after an embargo period of six months.

  • Chart of the Month: Russia losing half of its foreign reserves
    by Vasily Astrov
     
  • Opinion Corner I: A disaster that could have been avoided
    by Vasily Astrov
    The Russia-Ukraine war was by no means inevitable. Arguably, it was due entirely to a fateful chain of misjudgement, over-confidence, political short-sightedness and the various parties’ inability to predict the consequences of their actions. The likely long-term repercussions will be a partitioned Ukraine, an economically weakened Russia and a West that will see its sphere of influence shrink dramatically.
     
  • Opinion corner II: Vasily Astrov’s Opinion Corner piece: A rejoinder
    by Michael Landesmann
    International relations ‘realists’ get it wrong: the security concerns of smaller states are not to be considered second-ranked to those of would-be ‘Big Powers’. There can be no ‘balanced’ assessment of the current war situation in Ukraine and its causes.
     
  • Russia’s war economy 
    by Vladislav Inozemtsev
    Following the harsh economic sanctions imposed by the West, the war-time economic policy adopted by Russia will shape its economy for at least the next six months. It involves, among other things, the discriminatory treatment of foreigners and foreign-based entities from ‘unfriendly countries’, the creation of a de facto two-tier banking system, a separation of the rouble and foreign currency markets, and possibly the expropriation of foreign-owned property. It will not, however, forestall the most serious economic crisis in the history of modern Russia.
     
  • EU investment in China: past, present and ways ahead
    by Nina Vujanović
    Its significant economic reforms and the opening up of its markets have rendered China one of the largest trade players in the world. However, EU FDI in China has been relatively modest. The preferential treatment received by state-owned enterprises and conditions stipulating the transfer of technology remain major obstacles to FDI. Implementation of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with the EU and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement with other Asian and Pacific countries may, however, change EU investment patterns in China in the future.
     
  • Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe

 

Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database, wiiw FDI Database

Keywords: foreign exchange reserves, economic sanctions, military invasion, bargaining positions, spheres of influence, banking sector, foreign exchange, stock market, foreign property, foreign direct investment, Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, FDI regulatory restrictiveness, Russia-Ukraine war

Countries covered: China, EU, Russia, Ukraine

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI


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