Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

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Executive summary
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OVERVIEW 2022-2023 AND OUTLOOK 2024-2026
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Summary of key recent macroeconomic data for CESEE, and overview of new wiiw forecasts for 2024-2026 (Excel file)

Summer Forecast Update

Solid but Lopsided Recovery

Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2024-26

Global assumptions: Getting better, slowly by Richard Grieveson

CESEE Overview: Solid but lopsided recovery by Vasily Astrov

Country updates:

  • Albania: Solid economic growth by Isilda Mara
  • Belarus: Recovery continues, defying expectations by Rumen Dobrinsky
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina: Inflation slowing, but economy remains weak by Selena Duraković
  • Bulgaria: Economy lacks direction amidst a messy political situation by Rumen Dobrinsky
  • Croatia: Outlook remains positive by Bernd Christoph Ströhm
  • Czechia: On track for moderate recovery by Zuzana Zavarská
  • Estonia: On the verge of growth by Maryna Tverdostup
  • Hungary: Mounting fiscal problems prevail by Sándor Richter
  • Kazakhstan: Oil production cuts undermine economic growth by Alexandra Bykova
  • Kosovo: Good growth momentum by Isilda Mara
  • Latvia: Upswing approaching, but only slowly by Sebastian Leitner
  • Lithuania: Household consumption puts an end to stagnation by Sebastian Leitner
  • Moldova: Slow recovery despite subdued inflation by Gábor Hunya
  • Montenegro: Some question marks, but overall positive by Branimir Jovanović
  • North Macedonia: Change, but possibly not in the right direction by Branimir Jovanović
  • Poland: Strong currency, low inflation by Adam Żurawski
  • Romania: Growing fiscal tension by Gábor Hunya
  • Russia: Economy resilient to tight monetary conditions by Vasily Astrov
  • Serbia: Economy growing, but challenges remain by Branimir Jovanović
  • Slovakia: Mounting political risks by Doris Hanzl-Weiss
  • Slovenia: Solid growth expected in year of infrastructure rebuilding and disinflation by Niko Korpar
  • Turkey: Despite market confidence, the data paint an uncertain outlook by Meryem Gökten
  • Ukraine: Economy undermined by Russia’s missile attack on the energy infrastructure by Olga Pindyuk


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database, wiiw FDI Database

Keywords: CESEE, CESEE, economic forecast, Central and Eastern Europe, Western Balkans, EU, euro area, CIS, economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, GDP, wages, fiscal balance, policy rate, political risk

JEL classification: E20, E21, E23, E24, E31, E5, E62, H60, J20, J30, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P52

Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, CESEE, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, EU-CEE, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine, Euro Area, Germany, Western Balkans

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy