Monthly Report No. 1/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures
Current issues accessible exclusively for Members. Free access after an embargo period of six months.
Winter Forecast Update
All eyes on investment as geopolitical pressures mount
Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2026-28
The Winter 2026 economic outlook for Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) remains relatively resilient despite an increasingly turbulent global and geopolitical environment. Growth in the region continues to outperform Western Europe, but the underlying growth model is changing as the boost from rapid real wage gains fades and private consumption slows. Looking ahead, investment will play a more decisive role in sustaining growth, supported by EU-funded public investment, defence-related spending and, where conditions allow, easing monetary policy. At the same time, fiscal consolidation is set to intensify in several countries, constraining public demand. Heightened geopolitical risks, weak external demand and trade fragmentation remain key challenges, while the medium-term outlook will hinge on the region’s ability to attract productivity-enhancing investment and to navigate the economic implications of the war in Ukraine and shifting EU policy priorities.
OVERVIEW 2024-2025 AND OUTLOOK 2026-2028
Premium Members only
Summary of key recent macroeconomic data for CESEE, and overview of new wiiw forecasts for 2026-2028 (Excel file)
Executive summary
by Richard Grieveson
free download
Global assumptions
by Biljana Jovanovikj and Olga Pindyuk
CESEE Overview: All eyes on investment as geopolitical pressures mount
by Richard Grieveson
CESEE risk and opportunities matrices
Albania: Continuity of reform and robust growth
by Isilda Mara
Belarus: Ongoing slowdown in growth amid policy risks
by Dzmitry Kruk
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Growth momentum builds, though risks remain
by Selena Duraković
Bulgaria: Euro adopted, amid political turmoil
by Emilia Penkova-Pearson
Croatia: Slight growth slowdown ahead
by Bernd Christoph Ströhm
Czechia: Strong performance, lingering uncertainty
by Ioannis Gutzianas
Estonia: Patchy recovery in prospect
by Marina Tverdostup
Hungary: Pre-election hand-outs ruining the budget
by Sandor Richter
Kazakhstan: From oil-fuelled boom to softer growth
by Alexandra Bykova
Kosovo: Strong growth momentum and renewed stability
by Isilda Mara
Latvia: Solid upswing lies ahead
by Sebastian Leitner
Lithuania: Economic recovery continuing at a decent pace
by Sebastian Leitner
Moldova: A return to growth
by Gabor Hunya
Montenegro: Fiscal risks ahead as EU negotiations near completion
by Marko Sošić
North Macedonia: Headline growth improves, but quality does not
by Branimir Jovanović
Poland: Domestic demand supporting solid growth
by Maciej Grodzicki
Romania: Outlook depressed by fiscal austerity
by Gabor Hunya
Russia: Another year of near-stagnation in prospect
by Vasily Astrov
Serbia: Still waiting for the reset
by Branimir Jovanović
Slovakia: Fiscal consolidation continuing to dampen growth prospects
by Doris Hanzl-Weiss
Slovenia: Economic recovery but mounting pre-election spending risks
by Niko Korpar
Turkey: Growth resilient despite high inflation
by Meryem Gökten
Ukraine: Worsening outlook amid massive missile attacks by Russia
by Olga Pindyuk
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Central and Eastern Europe, Western Balkans, EU, euro area, CIS, economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, GDP, wages, fiscal balance, policy rate, political risk
JEL classification: E20, E21, E23, E24, E31, E5, E62, H60, J20, J30, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P52
Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, CESEE, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, EU-CEE, Euro Area, Germany, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine, Western Balkans
Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy